Process-based modelling of fluvial system response to rapid climate change—I: model formulation and generic applications
نویسندگان
چکیده
A comprehensive model strategy is presented which enables the prediction of catchment hydrology and the dynamics of sediment transport within the alluvial river systems draining these catchments. The model is driven by AGCM-based weather predictions, generalised by using a stochastic weather generator, and by palaeo-climate and palaeo-environment reconstructions. The model consists of a lumped hydrological rainfall-runoff model, calibrated against modern daily discharge data and the AGCM control experiment, combined with simple modules for hillslope erosion, river channel geometry, sediment transport and fluvial planform type. We apply the model to a conceptualised climatic cycle, and investigate the response to brief climatic events. Model predictions are discussed and compared to reconstructed river behaviour. r 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
منابع مشابه
Simulation of climate change in Iran during 2071-2100 using PRECIS regional climate modelling system
Parameters such as future precipitation, temperature, snowfall, and runoff were modeled using PRECIS regionalclimate modeling system in Iran with the horizontal resolutions of 0.44×0.44°C in latitude and longitude under SRESA2 and B2 scenarios. The dataset was based on HadAM3p during the periods of 1961-1990 and 2071-2100. Theoverall precipitation error of the model in the period of 1961-1990 w...
متن کاملA robust wavelet based profile monitoring and change point detection using S-estimator and clustering
Some quality characteristics are well defined when treated as response variables and are related to some independent variables. This relationship is called a profile. Parametric models, such as linear models, may be used to model profiles. However, in practical applications due to the complexity of many processes it is not usually possible to model a process using parametric models.In these cas...
متن کاملآشکارسازی تغییرات بارش‌های حدی و نسبت دهی به تغییر اقلیم با استفاده از روش استاندارد انگشت نگاشت بهینه (مطالعه موردی : جنوب غرب ایران)
Understanding the changes in extreme precipitation over a region is very important for adaptation strategies to climate change. One of the most important topics in this field is detection and attribution of climate change. Over the past two decades, there has been an increasing interest for scientists, engineers and policy makers to study about the effects of external forcing to the climatic va...
متن کاملProduction Constraints Modelling: A Tactical Review Approach
A constraint is a limitation or a restriction that poses a threat to the performance and efficiency of a system. This paper presented a tactical review approach to production constraints modeling. It discussed the theory of constraints (TOC) as a thinking process and continuous improvement strategy to curtail constraints in other to constantly increase the performance and efficiency of a system...
متن کاملپیامدهای تغییر اقلیم بر پراکنش کبک دری (Tetraogallus caspius Gmelin, 1784) در استان چهارمحال‌و‌بختیاری
Currently, there is little information on the high mountain species' response to the climate change in Iran, and it seems that these species are significantly affected by the climate change. In the current research, the spatial vulnerability of Caspian snowcock (Tetraogallus caspius) to the climate change in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province was predicted using the ensemble modelling approach...
متن کامل